Canadian Jobs Market Tanked in December   Canadian employment fell 62,600 last month, a bit weaker than expected, following seven months of recovery (see chart below). The rapid rise in COVID cases and the ensuing lockdown measures in many key regions caused the net loss in jobs in the mid-December survey.  Especially hard hit were workers […]

Canadian Housing Remained Strong in November    Today’s release of November housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows national home sales continued to run at historically strong levels last month. Competition among buyers remains intense in the detached-home market and townhouses. Still, condo apartment sales-relative-to-new-listings have slowed as new listings surged, especially in the […]

Bank of Canada Relies on Quantitative Easing   As promised, the Bank held its target overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 25 basis points with the clear notion that negative policy rates are not in the cards. Instead, the central bank will rely on large-scale asset purchases–quantitative easing (QE–of at least $5 billion […]

Canadian Housing Market Very Strong in July   Today’s release of July housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed a blockbuster July with both sales and new listings hitting their highest levels in 40 years of data. This continues the rebound in housing that began three months ago. National home sales rose […]

Canadian Economy Recovers Almost Half Its COVID-Induced Loss in May and June   The Canadian economy bounced back sharply in May and June as Canadian provinces eased lockdown measures. GDP expanded 4.5% in May, and activity in June was even more robust at an estimated 5% rise. Cumulatively, GDP rose 10% in May and June, […]

Bank of Canada Holds Target Rate Steady Until Inflation Sustainably Hits 2% The Bank of Canada under the new governor, Tiff Macklem, wants to be “unusually clear” that interest rates will remain low for a very long time. To do that, they are using “forward guidance”–indicating that they will not raise rates until capacity is […]

  Housing Market Continued Its Rebound in June and Early July   There was more good news today on the housing front. Home sales rebounded by a further 63% in June, returning them to normal levels for the month–150% above where they were in April when the pandemic-induced lockdown paralyzed the economy (see chart below). Data released […]

Canadian Business Sentiment Is Negative    The Bank of Canada released its Summer Business Outlook Survey (BOS)* this morning, covering an interview period from mid-May to early June. In all provinces and all sectors, the sentiment was hugely negative owing to the impact of the pandemic and falling oil prices. Since the previous survey, conducted before concerns […]

First Formal Remarks By Tiff Macklem, Bank of Canada Governor   There were no surprises this morning from Governor Macklem’s virtual presentation to the Canadian Clubs of Canada. His opening written statement was quite brief and it was followed up with a Q and A. Here are the key points that he emphasized. Negative interest rates are […]

CMHC Makes It More Difficult To Get An Insured Mortgage Once again, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is tightening the criteria to get a mortgage with less than a 20% down payment. Any potential home buyer with less than a 20% down payment must purchase default insurance on their loan and have a […]