The Surge In Canadian Unemployment Keeps Another Jumbo Rate Cut In Play In December   The BoC slashed the overnight rate by 50 bps this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 3.25%. The market had priced in nearly 90% odds of a 50 bp move, where consensus coalesced. The combined slower-than-expected GDP growth and a sharp […]

Canadian Housing Market Stuck In A Holding Pattern   Following the Bank of Canada’s third interest rate cut of the year, national home sales increased slightly in September compared to August. This follows a similar pattern of gains recorded in the months following the first two rate cuts. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems […]

Bank of Canada Cuts Rates Another Quarter Point   Today, the Bank of Canada cut the overnight policy rate by another 25 basis points to 4.25%. This is the third consecutive decrease since June. The Bank’s decision reflects two main developments. First, headline and core inflation have continued to ease as expected. Second, as inflation […]

Canadian Housing Market Paused In July   Despite the continued decline in interest rates, the Canadian housing market saw summer doldrums last month. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) announced today that national home sales fell 0.7% monthly while rising 4.8% from year-ago levels. A significant uptick in sales activity is likely this fall, reflecting […]

Canadian Inflation Fell in June, Setting the Stage For BoC Rate Cut   Inflation unexpectedly slipped 0.1% (not seasonally adjusted) in June, following a 0.6% increase in May. This was the first decline in six months. The monthly decrease was driven by lower prices for travel tours (-11.1%) and gasoline (-3.1%). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year over […]

A Collective Sigh of Relief As The BoC Cut Rates For the First Time in 27 Months   Today, the Bank of Canada boosted consumer and business confidence by cutting the overnight rate by 25 bps to 4.75% and pledged to continue reducing the size of its balance sheet. The news came on the heels […]

Homebuyers Cautious As New Listings Surge In April   The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) announced today that national home sales dipped in April 2024 from its prior month, as the number of properties available for sale rose sharply to kick off the spring housing market. Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems fell […]

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Until Core Inflation Falls Further   Today, the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the fifth consecutive meeting and pledged to continue normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Policymakers remain concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation. The latest data show that CPI inflation […]

Still No Recession In Canada Thanks to Huge Influx of Immigrants   Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose a moderate 1.0% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), a tad better than expected and the Q3 contraction of -1.2% was revised to -0.5%. This leaves growth for 2023 at a moderate 1.1%. Monthly data, also released today by […]

Housing Markets Prepare For A 2024 Rebound   Before we get into the details of the November housing market data released this morning by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), big positive news for housing occurred yesterday. The US Federal Reserve gave its clearest signal yet that its historic policy tightening campaign is over by […]