15 Jun

Canadian Home Sales Slow Again in May, Shifting To A Buyers Market in GTA

General

Posted by: Tony Passalacqua

Housing Market Correction Gains Steam in May
Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the slowdown that began in March in response to higher interest rates has broadened. In April, national home sales dropped by 12.6% monthly (m/m). National home sales fell by 8.6% between April and May, building on April’s decline, leaving monthly activity at pre-COVID levels recorded in the second half of 2019. (see chart below).

Sales were down in three-quarters of all local markets, led by many larger census metropolitan areas (CMAs), including those in the Lower Mainland, Calgary, Edmonton, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Ottawa. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in May 2022 came in 21.7% below the record for that month set last year. At a little over 50,000 units sold, the May 2022 sales figure was very close to the 10-year average for that month.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes climbed 4.5% month-over-month in May. The monthly increase was influenced by a jump in new supply in Montreal, while new listings in the GTA posted a modest decline.

With sales down and new listings up in May, the sales-to-new listings ratio eased back to 57.5% — its lowest level since April 2019. It was also not far off the long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio of 55.1%.

Almost three-quarters of local markets were balanced based on the sales-to-new listings ratio being between one standard deviation above or below the long-term average in May 2022 – the most significant number since the fall of 2019. A little less than one quarter was in seller’s market territory, while a small handful was in buyer’s market territory.

There were 2.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of May 2022, still historically low but up by a month from the tightest conditions ever recorded just six months ago. The long-term average for this measure is a little over five months.

Home Prices

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was still up by 23.8% on a year-over-year basis in April, although this was a marked slowdown from the near-30% record increase logged just two months earlier.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 0.8% m/m in May 2022, following a 1.1% decline in April.

Regionally, most of the monthly declines were in markets in Ontario. While most Ontario markets saw prices dip in May, prices rose in cottage country.

Prices rose in Vancouver Island but were flat in Greater Vancouver. Prices fell modestly in the Fraser Valley and posted a larger decline in Chilliwack. Prices were more or less unchanged across the Prairies save for small gains in Saskatoon and Winnipeg.

Meanwhile, Quebec, New Brunswick and PEI continued to outperform, while prices in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador edged up slightly.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was still up by 19.8% y/y in May. However, this posted a marked slowdown from the near-30% record increases logged in January and February.

Bottom Line

The three-month slide in Canadian home sales has now returned sales to pre-COVID levels after running roughly 3)% above that level for the  18 months through February. The most significant slowdown has occurred in Ontario, especially outside the core Toronto region. New listings have risen, but inventories remain low. The sales-to-new listings ratio has fallen sharply to 57.5%, its lowest level since early 2019. Prices have fallen moderately, taking the year-over-year gain down to 19.8% from 23.6% y/y in April. The average home price is now up just 3.4% y/y, which is down 11% from the February peak.

Toronto is cooling, but the suburbs are cooling even faster, while the exurbs (think London, Woodstock, Barrie) are seeing the sharpest shifts. The sales-to-new listings ratio for all of Ontario sunk below 50%, a level we’ve only seen during the 2009 recession and the dark days of the early 1990s. Elsewhere, Alberta remains relatively tight, albeit with stalling prices, while Vancouver, Ottawa and Montreal are mixed between the extremes.

Interest rates have risen sharply from their COVID-induced lows. Mortgage rates have risen sharply from lows of about 1.5% to nearly 5% for 5-year fixed rates. Variable mortgage rates are on their way to 4%-to-4.5% by yearend. By late summer, any still-favourable rate holds will be gone, and this new interest-rate reality will fully sink in. Stress tests at the contract rate plus 200 bps are now nearing 7%; they’ll also be pushing above 5.25% in the variable space.

Many potential Canadian homebuyers now expect home prices to continue to fall in some regions. This shift in psychology will also contribute to the housing correction. In a separate report, CMHC reported that housing starts increased sharply in May. Homebuilding is at its most robust pace on record, going back to the 1950s. Given the record-low unemployment rate, home construction is constrained by record-high job vacancies in the sector, shortages of materials, and rising wage rates. Construction costs have risen sharply in the past year. With higher mortgage rates in the future, the deceleration in sales could lead to slower housing starts next year.

Finally, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 bps today, intensifying the inflation fight. This opens the door for a 75 bps hike by the Bank of Canada when it meets again on July 13. It is now widely expected that the US policy rate, the overnight fed funds rate will exceed 4% by yearend. Canada’s central bank had already announced its intention to hike the overnight rate here more forcefully and has suggested that it will take an overnight rate above 3% to break the back of inflation. The overnight rate now is only 1.5%. A further correction in housing is likely in the coming months. As the economy’s most interest-sensitive sector, housing is the key transmission mechanism for tighter monetary policy to slow the economy and bring inflation under control.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
14 Jun

CHIP Reverse Mortgage

General

Posted by: Tony Passalacqua

Wouldn’t it be nice if you had the money to do more of the things you want to do? A CHIP Reverse Mortgage could be just what you need. It’s the simple and sensible way to unlock the value in your home and turn it into cash to help you enjoy life on your terms.

 

BENEFITS OF A CHIP REVERSE MORTGAGE

You receive the money tax-free. It is not added to your taxable income so it doesn’t affect Old Age Security (OAS) or Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) government benefits you may receive.

You can use the money any way you wish. Maybe you want to enjoy your retirement or cover unexpected expenses. Perhaps you want to update your home or help your family without depleting your current savings. The only condition is that any outstanding loans (e.g. existing mortgage or home equity line of credit) secured by your home must be paid out with the proceeds from your CHIP Reverse Mortgage.

No regular mortgage payments are required while you or your spouse live in your home. The full amount only becomes due when you and your spouse no longer live in the homeYou maintain ownership and control of your home. You will never be asked to move or sell to repay your CHIP Reverse Mortgage. All that’s required is that you maintain your property and stay up-to-date with property taxes, fire insurance and condominium or maintenance fees while you live there.

You keep all the equity remaining in your home. In many years of experience, 99 out of 100 homeowners have money left over when their CHIP Reverse Mortgage is repaid. And on average, the amount left over is 50% of the value of the home when it is sold.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Got questions? Here are frequently asked questions.

How does a CHIP Reverse Mortgage work?

A CHIP Reverse Mortgage is secured by the equity in your home. Unlike a traditional mortgage in which you make regular payments to someone else, a reverse mortgage pays you.

The big advantage with the CHIP Reverse Mortgage is that you do not have to make any regular mortgage payments for as long as you or your spouse lives in your home. That’s what has made reverse mortgages such a popular solution in Canada, the U.K., the U.S., Australia and other countries.

Who is it for?

The CHIP Reverse Mortgage is designed exclusively for homeowners age 55 and older. This age qualification applies to both you and your spouse.

How much can I get and how is it calculated?

You can receive up to 55% of the value of your home. The specific amount is based on your age and that of your spouse, the location and type of home you have, and your home’s current appraised value. You can contact me and I can quickly give you an estimate of how much you may be approved for.

How do I receive the money?

You can choose how you want to receive the money. The CHIP Reverse Mortgage gives you the option of receiving all the money you’re eligible for in one lump sum advance, or you can take some now and more later, or you can receive planned advances over a set period of time. Planned advances are available on the Income Advantage product.

Will the homeowner owe more than the house is worth?

The homeowner keeps all the equity remaining in the home. In our many years of experience, over 99% of homeowners have money left over when their loan is repaid. The equity remaining depends on the amount borrowed, the value of the home, and the amount of time that’s passed since the reverse mortgage was taken out.

Will the bank own the home?

No. The homeowner retains title and maintains ownership of the home. It’s required for the homeowner to live in the home, pay taxes on time, have property insurance, and maintain the property in good condition.

What if the homeowner has an existing mortgage?

Many of our clients use a reverse mortgage to pay off their existing mortgage and debts.

Should reverse mortgages only be considered as a loan of last resort?

No. Many financial professionals recommend a reverse mortgage to supplement monthly income instead of selling and downsizing, or taking out a conventional mortgage or a line of credit.

What fees are associated with a reverse mortgage?

There are one time fees to arrange a reverse mortgage such as an appraisal fee, fee for independent legal advice as well as our fee for administration, title insurance, and registration. With the exception of the appraisal fee, these fees are paid for with the funding dollars.

What if the homeowner can’t afford payments?

There are no monthly payments required as long as the homeowner is living in the home.

Contact me today if you have any questions or if you’d like to see how much you can get!

Tony Passalacqua

Cell: 778 895 4122

email: tpassalacqua@dominionlending.ca

 

7 Jun

The Bank of Canada Hikes Rates Again By 50 bps

General

Posted by: Tony Passalacqua

Another Jumbo Rate Hike, Signalling More To Come
The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised the overnight policy rate by a full 50 basis points once again today, marking the third rate hike this year. The two back-to-back half-point increases are without precedent, but so were the dramatic pandemic rate cuts in the spring of 2020. Indeed, with the surge in Canadian inflation to 6.8% in April, the Bank of Canada is still behind the curve. The chart below shows that inflation remains well above the Bank’s forecasts. Today’s press release suggests they now estimate that inflation rose again in May and could well accelerate further.

Today’s policy statement emphasized that “As pervasive input price pressures feed through into consumer prices, inflation continues to broaden, with core measures of inflation ranging between 3.2% and 5.1%. Almost 70% of CPI categories now show inflation above 3%. The risk of elevated inflation becoming entrenched has risen. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to target and keep inflation expectations well anchored.”

“The increase in global inflation is occurring as the global economy slows. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, China’s COVID-related lockdowns, and ongoing supply disruptions are all weighing on activity and boosting inflation. The war has increased uncertainty and is putting further upward pressure on prices for energy and agricultural commodities. This is dampening the outlook, particularly in Europe. In the United States, private domestic demand remains robust, despite the economy contracting in the first quarter of 2022.”

The Bank said that “Canadian economic activity is strong and the economy is clearly operating in excess demand. National accounts data for the first quarter of 2022 showed GDP growth of 3.1 percent, in line with the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projection. Job vacancies are elevated, companies are reporting widespread labour shortages, and wage growth has been picking up and broadening across sectors. Housing market activity is moderating from exceptionally high levels. With consumer spending in Canada remaining robust and exports anticipated to strengthen, growth in the second quarter is expected to be solid.”

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada couldn’t be more forthright. The concluding paragraph of the policy statement is as follows: “With the economy in excess demand, and inflation persisting well above target and expected to move higher in the near term, the Governing Council continues to judge that interest rates will need to rise further. The policy interest rate remains the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument, with quantitative tightening acting as a complementary tool. The pace of further increases in the policy rate will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and inflation, and the Governing Council is prepared to act more forcefully if needed to meet its commitment to achieve the 2% inflation target.”

The Bank of Canada has told us we should expect at least another 50 bps rate hike when they meet again on July 13. It could even be 75 bps if inflation shows no sign of decelerating. The Bank estimates that the overnight rate’s neutral (noninflationary) level is  2%-to-3%. Traders currently expect the policy rate to end the year at roughly 3%.

This was a very hawkish policy statement. The central bank is defending its credibility and will undoubtedly continue to tighten monetary policy aggressively.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca