26 Oct

Bank of Canada Slows Pace of Rate Hikes

General

Posted by: Tony Passalacqua

The Bank of Canada Slowed the Pace of Monetary Tightening

 

The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight policy rate by 50 basis points today to 3.75% and signalled that the policy rate would rise further. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening (QT), reducing its holdings of Government of Canada bonds, which puts additional upward pressure on longer-term interest rates.

Most market analysts had expected a 75 bps hike in response to the disappointing inflation data for September. Headline inflation has slowed from 8.1% to 6.9% over the past three months, primarily due to the fall in gasoline prices. However, the Bank said that “price pressures remain broadly based, with two-thirds of CPI components increasing more than 5% over the past year. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are not yet showing meaningful evidence that underlying price pressures are easing. Near-term inflation expectations remain high, increasing the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched.”

In his press conference, Governor Tiff Macklem said that the Bank chose to reduce today’s rate hike from 75 bps last month (and 100 bps in July) to today’s 50 bps because “there is evidence that the economy is slowing.” When asked if this is a pivot from very big rate increases, Macklem said that further rate increases are coming, but how large they will be is data-dependent. Global factors will also influence future Bank of Canada actions.

“The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease as higher interest rates help rebalance demand and supply, price pressures from global supply disruptions fade, and the past effects of higher commodity prices dissipate. CPI inflation is projected to move down to about 3% by the end of 2023 and then return to the 2% target by the end of 2024.”

The press release concluded with the following statement: “Given elevated inflation and inflation expectations, as well as ongoing demand pressures in the economy, the Governing Council expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further. Future rate increases will be influenced by our assessments of how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflation expectations are responding. Quantitative tightening is complementing increases in the policy rate. We are resolute in our commitment to restore price stability for Canadians and will continue to take action as required to achieve the 2% inflation target.”

Reading the tea leaves here, the fact that the Bank of Canada referred to ‘increases’ in interest rates in the plural suggests it will not be just one more hike and done.

Monetary Policy Report (MPR)

The Bank of Canada released its latest global and Canadian economies forecast in their October MPR. They have reduced their outlook across the board. Concerning the Canadian outlook, GDP growth in 2022 has been revised down by about ¼ of a percentage point to around 3¼%. It has been reduced by close to 1 percentage point in 2023 and almost ½ of a percentage point in 2024, to about 1% and 2%, respectively. These revisions leave the level of real GDP about 1½% lower by the end of 2024.

Consumer price index (CPI) inflation in 2022 and 2023 is anticipated to be lower than previously projected. The outlook for CPI inflation has been revised down by ¼ of a percentage point to just under 7% in 2022 and by ½ of a percentage point to about 4% in 2023. The outlook for inflation in 2024 is largely unchanged. The downward revisions are mainly due to lower gasoline prices and weaker demand. Easing global cost pressures, including lower-than-expected shipping costs, also contribute to reducing inflation in 2023. The weaker Canadian dollar partially offsets these cost pressures.

The Bank is expecting lower household spending growth. Consumer spending is expected to contract modestly in Q4 of this year and through the first half of next year. Higher interest rates weigh on household spending, with housing and big-ticket items most affected (Chart below). Decreasing house prices, financial wealth and consumer confidence also restrain household spending. Borrowing costs have risen sharply. The costs for those taking on a new mortgage are up markedly. Households renewing an existing mortgage are facing a larger increase than has been experienced during any tightening cycle over the past 30 years. For example, a homeowner who signed a five-year fixed-rate mortgage in October 2017 would now be faced with a mortgage rate of 1½ to 2 percentage points higher at renewal.

Housing activity is the most interest-sensitive component of household spending. It provides the economy’s most important transmission mechanism of monetary tightening (or easing). The rise in mortgage rates contributed to a sharp pullback in resales beginning in March. Resales have declined and are now below pre-pandemic levels (Chart below). Renovation activity has also weakened. The contraction in residential investment that began in the year’s second quarter is projected to continue through the first half of 2023, although to a lesser degree. House prices rose by just over 50% between February 2020 and February 2022 and have declined by just under 10%. They are projected by the Bank of Canada to continue to decline, particularly in those markets that saw larger increases during the pandemic.

Higher borrowing costs are affecting spending on big-ticket items. Spending on automobiles, furniture and appliances is the most sensitive to interest rates and is already showing signs of slowing. As higher interest rates work their way through the economy, disposable income growth and the demand for services will also slow. Past experience suggests that the demand for travel, hotels, restaurant meals and communications services will be impacted the most. Household spending strengthens beginning in the second half of 2023 and extends through 2024. Population growth and rising disposable incomes support demand as the impact of the tightening in financial conditions wanes. For example, new residential construction is boosted by strong immigration in markets that are already particularly tight.

Governor Macklem and his officials raised the prospect of a technical recession. “A couple of quarters with growth slightly below zero is just as likely as a couple of quarters with small positive growth” in the first half of next year, the bank said in the MPR.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada’s surprising decision today to hike interest rates by 50 bps, 25 bps less than expected, reflected the Bank’s significant downgrade to the economic outlook. Weaker growth is expected to dampen inflation pressures sufficiently to warrant today’s smaller move.

A 50 bps rate hike is still an aggressive move, and the implications are considerable for the housing market. The prime rate will now quickly rise to 5.95%, increasing the variable mortgage interest rate another 50 bps, which will likely take the qualifying rate to roughly 7.5%.

Fixed mortgage rates, tied to the 5-year government of Canada bond yield, will be less affected. The 5-year bond yield declined sharply today–down nearly 25 bps to 3.42%–with the smaller-than-expected rate hike.

Barring substantial further weakening in the economy or a big move in inflation, I expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates again in December by 25 bps and then again once or twice in 2023. The terminal overnight target rate will likely be 4.5%, and the Bank will hold firm for the rest of the year. Of course, this is data-dependent, and the level of uncertainty is elevated.

 

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
14 Oct

Canadian Housing Activity Slowed Again in September As Prices Continued to Fall

General

Posted by: Tony Passalacqua

Orderly Housing Correction Continues

 

There are many unusual aspects to the current housing correction, but fundamentally the most noteworthy is how orderly and non-chaotic it has been. Home sales have slowed, but so have new listings, so the price declines are more muted than we might have expected. This is not a housing collapse. It is a housing correction. We’ve seen little distressed selling, as most would-be sellers have lots of home equity and low mortgage rates–not anxious to buy new properties immediately. Moreover, with rents surging, most potential down-sizers aren’t keen to make that trade-off.

The full effects of the most recent rate hikes have not yet manifested. Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the slowdown that began in March in response to higher interest rates continued in September. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems fell by 3.9% between August and September 2022. From May through August, month-over-month declines have been progressively smaller. The September result marked a slight increase in the current sales slowdown that began with the Bank of Canada’s first rate hike back in March.

While about 60% of all local markets saw sales fall from August to September, the national number was pulled lower by the fact markets with declines included Greater Vancouver, Calgary, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Montreal.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in September 2022 came in 32.2% below that same month last year. It stood about 12% below the pre-pandemic 10-year average for that month (see chart below).

“September was another month of lower sales activity, although, with many sellers also opting to play the waiting game, the market remains on the tighter side of balanced market territory,” said Jill Oudil, Chair of CREA. “It makes for an interesting dynamic, one that doesn’t really have many historical precedents. The market has changed so much in the last year, and the adjustment to higher borrowing costs is still underway.”

“Up until recently, higher borrowing costs had disproportionally affected the fixed-rate space, with buyers able to qualify more easily if they went with a variable rate mortgage,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “The Bank of Canada’s most recent rate hike in early September finally closed that door, so it was not a big surprise to see additional softness on the sales side. The important thing to remember is we’re still in the middle of a period of rapid adjustment, with buyers and sellers trying to feel each other out while a lot of people have had to take their home search plans back to the drawing board. As such, resale markets may remain on the quiet side for some time yet, with the flipside of that coin being even more pressure on rental markets.”

New Listings
The supply of homes is still historically low. The number of newly listed homes edged back a further 0.8% on a month-over-month basis in September. This built on the 6.1% and 4.9% declines recorded in July and August, respectively, as some sellers appear content to stay on the sidelines until more buyers are ready to get back into the market. It was an even split between markets where new supply was down in September and those where it increased, with the most significant declines in the GTA offsetting the largest gains in British Columbia’s Lower Mainland.

Unusually, new listings would be so listless during a housing slowdown. However, the CREA data only go back 42 years, when interest rates trended sharply downward. Sellers today typically have mortgages at far lower than current rates, which no doubt dampens their enthusiasm to sell. Distressed sellers apparently listed their homes earlier this cycle, with the rest remaining on the sidelines for now. That could change if interest rates rise substantially further, although the incentives to stay in place continue high.

With sales down and new listings seeing a minor change in September, the sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 52% compared to 53.6% in August. The September 2022 reading for the national sales-to-new listings ratio was back on par with those in June and July and slightly below its long-term average of 55.1%.

There were 3.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2022, up slightly from 3.5 months at the end of August. While the number of months of inventory is still well below the long-term average of about five months, it’s also up quite a bit from the all-time low of 1.7 months set at the beginning of 2022.

Home Prices
The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 1.6% on a month-over-month basis in August 2022, not a small decline historically, but smaller than in June and July.

Breaking it down regionally, most of the monthly declines in recent months have been in markets across Ontario and, to a lesser extent, in British Columbia; however, in August, Ontario markets contributed most to the overall national decline.

Looking across the Prairies, prices in Alberta appear to have peaked. Prices still rise slightly in Saskatchewan, while Manitoba recorded the only decline. In Quebec, prices have dipped somewhat in the last couple of months. On the East coast, the softening of prices confined to Halifax-Dartmouth is now also appearing in New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador. By contrast, prices in PEI continue to edge ahead on a month-over-month basis.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was still up by 7.1% on a year-over-year basis in August. This was the first single-digit increase in almost two years, as year-over-year comparisons have been winding down at a brisk pace from the near-30% record year-over-year gains logged just six months ago.
The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI edged down 1.4% on a month-over-month basis in September 2022, not a small decline historically, but smaller than in June, July and August.

Breaking it down regionally, most of the recent monthly declines had been in markets across Ontario and, to a lesser extent, in B.C. The standout trend in August and September was that quite a few of those Ontario markets saw monthly price declines get stopped in their tracks, mainly in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. In a few markets prices even popped up a bit between August and September.

Looking across the Prairies, prices in Edmonton and Winnipeg are down a bit from their peaks, while prices are sliding sideways in Calgary, Regina, and Saskatoon. Similarly in Quebec, prices have dipped in Montreal but are mostly flat in Quebec City.

On the East Coast, price softness that had been confined to the Halifax-Dartmouth area appears to now be showing up in parts of New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador, while prices in Prince Edward Island have flattened out in recent months but have not yet moved any lower.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was still up by 3.3% on a year-over-year basis in September, a far cry from the near-30% record year-over-year gains logged in early 2022.

US Inflation Surprises on the High Side in September

In other news, US CPI data, released yesterday for September, show inflation remains stubbornly high, assuring another 75 bps increase in the US overnight policy rate when the Fed meets again on November 3.

A closely watched measure of US consumer prices rose by more than forecast to a 40-year high last month, pressuring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even more aggressively. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 6.6% from a year ago, the highest level since 1982. From a month earlier, the core CPI climbed 0.6%. On the heels of a solid jobs report last week and record-low unemployment, the inflation data likely cement an additional 75-basis point interest rate hike at the Fed’s November policy meeting. Even more noteworthy, however, is that immediately following the release of the inflation report, the market assessment of the maximum overnight rate rose from 4.6% to 4.85% for March of next year, substantially above the current overnight rate of 3.25%.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada’s next policy announcement date is October 26, when we will likely see another hike in the overnight policy target of at least 50 bps to 3.75%. Much will depend on next week’s release of the September CPI report for Canada on Wednesday, October 19. All eyes will be on the Bank’s measures of core inflation, which have been stubbornly sticky at above 5% on average. If the data disappoint on the high side, we can’t rule out a 75-bps rate hike the following week.

I believe both the Bank of Canada and the Fed will hike overnight rates further later this year and into next year. They are also not likely to begin to reverse these rate hikes until 2024.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

 
12 Oct

The Versatility of the CHIP Reverse Mortgage

General

Posted by: Tony Passalacqua

The Versatility of the CHIP Reverse Mortgage

If you are a Canadian homeowner 55+ and require extra cash to satisfy your financial needs in retirement, then you should consider using a Reverse Mortgage as a source for funds. The CHIP Reverse Mortgage allows you to access up to 55% of your home’s equity in tax-free cash with no monthly payments required. With this money you can renovate your home, pay off debts, purchase new properties, or even take a vacation abroad. Many clients have experienced the benefits of the CHIP Reverse Mortgage by using its funds to meet their financial needs in retirement.

Here are some of the most common ways clients have used the CHIP Reverse Mortgage:

Health Care: 91% of Canadians say they want to remain in their own homes for as long as possible after retirement. If you are one of these Canadians, you can use the CHIP Reverse Mortgage to help you continue living in the comfort of your own home and community. Many Canadians cite that they are forced to move out of their homes because they cannot afford the high costs associated with in-home care. However, the CHIP Reverse Mortgage can give you the financial means to remain in the home you love and afford the health care you need as you age.

Renovations/Retrofitting: Many clients use the proceeds of the CHIP Reverse Mortgage for renovations and retrofitting. If this is something you have always wanted to do, but lacked the funds for, then the CHIP Reverse Mortgage may be able to provide the source of cashflow you need. You can finally get around to fixing that creaky floorboard, remodeling the entire kitchen, or even adding a lovely jacuzzi to enjoy retirement without worrying about the cost of improving your standard of living.

Income Supplement: Like many other Canadians, you might fear that you cannot maintain the same standard of living once you retire due to a decreased income. Furthermore, with interest rates rising and inflation hitting all-time highs, Canadian’s average annual expenses have ballooned. For these reasons, you may have to sacrifice your vacation plans, restaurant dinners, or annual subscriptions. However, with the CHIP Reverse Mortgage, you can get an increase in your cashflow with no monthly payments required and be financially secure to live out your retirement on your terms.

Unplanned Expenses: You may have the perfect retirement plan, which has been built to provide you with financial security. However, unplanned expenses are almost impossible to avoid, no matter how much planning you have done. Emergencies relating to damages to your home and unexpected health issues can always arise, the costs of which may not have been accounted for in your retirement plan. The CHIP Reverse Mortgage can help you by accessing the value of your home’s equity and giving you the tax-free cash, you need to be financially prepared for any unplanned expenses.

Early Inheritance: Many clients use the CHIP Reverse Mortgage funds to provide an early inheritance to their family. With the cash you receive from the CHIP Reverse Mortgage, you can help support your loved ones now and give them an early inheritance to help them with a down payment on a house or even help grandchildren with college fees. This way, you can share in the enjoyment of their inheritance well into your retirement.

Travel: We always talk about travelling but find excuses not to do it. Two of the biggest reasons are that there is no time to travel, or it is too expensive. When most people retire, they finally find themselves having the time for travel, but the cost of travelling often dissuades them. The CHIP Reverse Mortgage provides you with cash now, so that you can take the vacation you have always wanted. You can receive up to 55% of your home’s equity to use on your next destination without making any monthly payments. Whether the trip is local, a quick weekend getaway, or an all-inclusive beach resort, the CHIP Reverse Mortgage can help you afford your travels.

Purchase Mortgage: Have you ever dreamed about purchasing a nice cottage or beach house as a vacation home for you and your family? If you answered yes, you are like many clients who have used the tax-free cash they receive from the CHIP Reverse Mortgage to purchase their dream vacation home.

Debt Consolidation: One of the most common use of funds of the CHIP Reverse Mortgage is for Debt Consolidation. You can use the tax-free funds you obtain from accessing your home’s equity to pay off all your debts and live a peaceful retired life. The best part is that you are not required to make any monthly payments with a reverse mortgage, giving you even more monthly cash flow to use to improve your retirement after your debt has been covered.

These are only some of the different uses of the CHIP Reverse Mortgage.

Contact me to find out how versatile the CHIP Reverse Mortgage is and how it can be used to help you live a better retirement! 

Tony Passalacqua

Reverse Mortgage Expert

DLC Next Generation Mortgage

Cell: 778 895 4122

Email: tpassalacqua@dominionlending.ca

21 Sep

Canadian Inflation Slows For the Second Consecutive Month

General

Posted by: Tony Passalacqua

Inflation Cooled Again in August, But Higher Rates Still Coming
Canada’s headline inflation rate cooled again in August, even a bit more than expected. The consumer price index rose 7.0% from a year ago, down from 7.6% in July and a forty-year high of 8.1% in June, mainly on the back of lower gasoline prices.

The CPI fell 0.3% in August, the most significant monthly decline since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.1%, the smallest gain since December 2020. The monthly gas price decline in August compared with July mainly stemmed from higher global production by oil-producing countries. According to data from Natural Resources Canada, refining margins also fell from higher levels in July.

Transportation (+10.3%) and shelter (+6.6%) prices drove the deceleration in consumer prices in August. Moderating the slowing in prices were sustained higher prices for groceries, as prices for food purchased from stores (+10.8%) rose at the fastest pace since August 1981 (+11.9%).

Price growth for goods and services both slowed on a year-over-year basis in August. As non-durable goods (+10.8%) decelerated due to lower prices at the pump, services associated with travel and shelter services contributed the most to the slowdown in service prices (+5.5%). Prices for durable goods (+6.0%), such as passenger vehicles and appliances, also cooled in August.

In August, the average hourly wages rose 5.4% on a year-over-year basis, meaning that, on average, prices rose faster than wages. Although Canadians experienced a decline in purchasing power, the gap was smaller than in July.

Core inflation–which excludes food and energy prices–also decelerated but remains far too high for the Bank of Canada’s comfort.  The central bank analyzes three measures of core inflation (see the chart below). The average of the central bank’s three key measures dropped to 5.23% from a revised 5.43% in July, a record high. The Bank aims to return these measures to their 2% target.

Bottom Line

Price pressures might have peaked, but today’s data release will not derail the central bank’s intention to raise rates further. Markets expect another rate hike in late October when the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada meets again. But further moves are likely to be smaller than the 75 bps-hikes of the past summer.

There is still more than a month of data before the October 25th decision date. The September employment report (released on October 7) and the September CPI (October 19) will be critical to the Bank’s decision. Right now, we expect a 50-bps hike next month.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
7 Sep

Bank of Canada hiked overnight rate by 75 bps to 3.25% with more to come

General

Posted by: Tony Passalacqua

The Bank of Canada Hiked Rates Again And Isn’t Finished Yet
The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight policy rate by 75 basis points today to 3.25% and signalled that the policy rate would rise further. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening (QT), reducing its holdings of Government of Canada bonds, which puts additional upward pressure on longer-term interest rates.

While some Bay Street analysts believed this would be the last tightening move this cycle, the central bank’s press release has dissuaded them of this notion. There has been a misconception regarding the so-called neutral range for the overnight policy rate. With inflation at 2%, the Bank of Canada economists estimated some time ago that the neutral range for the policy rate was 2%-to-3%, leading some to believe that the Bank would only need to raise their policy target to just above 3%. However, the neutral range is considerably higher, with overall inflation at 7.6% and core inflation measures rising to 5.0%-to-5.5%. In other words, 3.25% is no longer sufficiently restrictive to temper domestic demand to levels consistent with the 2% inflation target.

As the Bank points out in today’s statement, though Q2 GDP growth in Canada was slower than expected at 3.3%, domestic demand indicators were robust – “consumption grew by about 9.5%, and business investment was up by close to 12%. With higher mortgage rates, the housing market is pulling back as anticipated, following unsustainable growth during the pandemic.”

Wage rates continue to rise, and labour markets are exceptionally tight, with job vacancies at record levels. We will know more on the labour front with the release of the August jobs report this Friday. But the Bank is concerned that rising inflation expectations risk embedding wage and price gains. To forestall this, the policy interest rate will need to rise further.

Traders are now betting that another 50-bps rate hike is likely when the Governing Council meets again on October 25th. There is another meeting this year on December 6th. I expect the policy rate to end the year at 4%.

Bottom Line

The implications of today’s Bank of Canada action are considerable for the housing market. The prime rate will now quickly rise to 5.45%, increasing the variable mortgage interest rate another 75 bps, which will likely take the qualifying rate to roughly 7%.

Fixed mortgage rates, tied to the 5-year government of Canada bond yield, will also rise, but not nearly as much. The 5-year yield has reversed some of its immediate post-announcement spike and remains at about 3.27% (see charts below). Expectations of an economic slowdown have muted the impact of higher short-term interest rates on longer-term bond yields. This inversion of the yield curve is consistent with the expectation of a mild recession next year. It is noteworthy that the Bank omitted the usual comment on a soft landing in the economy in today’s press release. Bank economists realize that the price paid for inflation control might well be at least a mild recession.

Another implication of today’s policy rate hike is the prospect of fixed-payment variable-rate mortgages taken at the meagre yields of 2021 and 2022, hitting their trigger rate. There is a good deal of uncertainty around how many these will be, as the terms vary from loan to loan, but it is another factor that will overhang the economy in the next year.

We maintain the view that the economy will slow considerably in the second half of this year and through much of 2023. The Bank of Canada will hold the target policy rate at its ultimate high point– at least one or two hikes away– through much of 2023, if not beyond. A return to 2% inflation will not occur until at least 2024, and (as Governor Macklem says) the Bank’s job is not finished until then.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
10 Aug

Finally Some Good News On The Inflation Front

General

Posted by: Tony Passalacqua

Finally, Some Good News on the Inflation Front
It was widely expected that US consumer price inflation would decelerate in July, reflecting the decline in energy prices that peaked in early June. The US CPI was unchanged last month following its 1.3% spike in June. This reduced the year-over-year inflation rate to 8.5% from a four-decade high of 9.1%. Oil prices have fallen to roughly US$90.00 a barrel, returning it to the level posted before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This has taken gasoline prices down sharply, a decline that continued thus far in August. Key commodity prices have fallen sharply, shown in the chart below, although the recent decline in the agriculture spot index has not shown up yet on grocery store shelves. US food costs jumped 1.1% in July, taking the yearly rate to 10.9%, its highest level since 1979.

The biggest surprise was the decline in core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices. The shelter index continued to rise but did post a smaller increase than the prior month, increasing 0.5 percent in July compared to 0.6 percent in June. The rent index rose 0.7 percent in July, and the owners’ equivalent rent index rose 0.6 percent.

Travel-related prices declined last month. The index for airline fares fell sharply in July, decreasing 7.8%. Hotel prices continued to drop, falling 2.7% on the heels of a similar decrease in June. Rental car prices fell as well from historical highs earlier this cycle.

Bottom Line

The expectation is that the softening in inflation will give the Fed some breathing room. Fed officials have said they want to see months of evidence that prices are cooling, especially in the core gauge. They’ll have another round of monthly CPI and jobs reports before their next policy meeting on Sept. 20-21.

Treasury yields slid across the curve on the news this morning while the S&P 500 was higher and the US dollar plunged. Traders now see a 50-basis-point increase next month as more likely than 75. Next Tuesday, August 16, the July CPI will be released in Canada. If the data show a dip in Canadian inflation, as I expect, that could open the door for a 50 bps rise (rather than 75 bps) in the Bank of Canada rate when they meet again on September 7. That is particularly important because, with one more policy rate hike, we are on the precipice of hitting trigger points for fixed payment variable rate mortgages booked since March 2020, when the prime rate was only 2.45%. The lower the rate hike, the fewer the number of mortgages falling into that category.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
18 Jul

Canadian Home Prices Fall Sharply in June

General

Posted by: Tony Passalacqua

House Price Decline Accelerated in June
Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the slowdown that began in March in response to higher interest rates has broadened. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems fell by 5.6% between May and June 2022, taking second-quarter sales down sharply (see chart below). The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in June 2022 came in 23.9% below the record for that month set last year and is below its 10-year monthly moving average.

“Sales activity continues to slow in the face of rising interest rates and uncertainty,” said Jill Oudil, Chair of CREA. “The cost of borrowing has overtaken supply as the dominant factor affecting housing markets at the moment, but the supply issue has not gone away.”

The Bank of Canada’s shocking 100 basis point hike in the benchmark policy rate will accelerate the slowdown in the coming months.    “One important feature of the market right now that isn’t getting enough attention is the difference in mortgage qualification criteria between fixed and variable, because while variable rates adjust in real-time, fixed rates have already priced in most of what the Bank of Canada is expected to do over the balance of 2022,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “As such, it’s no surprise to see people piling into variable rate mortgages at record levels, but probably not for the reasons they may have chosen them in the past. It’s because the 200 basis points plus the contract rate element of the stress test has, just since April, become much more difficult to pass if you want a fixed-rate mortgage. A strict stress test made sense when rates were at a record-low, but policymakers may want to assess if it continues to meet its policy objectives now that fixed mortgage rates are back at more normal levels.”

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes climbed 4.1% month-over-month in June. The monthly increase was most influenced by a jump in new supply in Montreal, while new listings in the GTA and Greater Vancouver posted slight declines.

With sales down and new listings up in June, the sales-to-new listings ratio eased back to 51.7% – its lowest level since January 2015. It was also below the long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio of 55.1%. Almost three-quarters of local markets were balanced markets based on the sales-to-new listings ratio being between one standard deviation above or below the long-term average in June 2022.
There were 3.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of June 2022, still historically low but slowly increasing from the tightest conditions recorded just six months ago. The long-term average for this measure is more than five months.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 1.9% on a month-over-month basis in June 2022.

Regionally, most of the monthly declines were seen in markets in Ontario. Home prices have also eased in parts of British Columbia, although the B.C. provincial totals have been propped up by mostly static prices in Greater Vancouver.

Prices continue to be more or less flat across the Prairies while only just now showing small signs of declines in Quebec.

On the East Coast, prices are mostly continuing to rise but appear to have stalled in Halifax-Dartmouth.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was still up by 14.9% on a year-over-year basis in June, although this was just half the near 30% record year-over-year increases logged in January and February (see chart and tables below for details by region).

Bottom Line

In many respects, today’s housing data trends are already outdated. It changed with the blockbuster rate hike a couple of days ago. Excess housing demand is essentially over, and we are heading into a more fragile period for resale volumes and prices. The national sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 51.7% in June, which is considered balanced, but it’s the lowest ratio since 2015 and is headed in a softer direction. Buyers’ markets are already evident, especially in some of the suburbs/exurbs in Ontario and parts of BC. These are the regions that posted extreme price gains last year. Others, such as cities in oil-rich Alberta and Atlantic Canada, are still holding in well.

With the Bank of Canada’s most recent tightening, qualifying rates are ratcheting up for both variable and fixed mortgage rates. Before the one percentage point rate hike, variable rate loans were qualifying at 5.25%, but now that has shifted to around 6%. Fixed-rate borrowers are qualifying at about 7%. The Canadian prime rate has surged this year, increasing variable mortgage rates by roughly 300 basis points. Robert Kavcic at BMO has calculated that “going from 1.5% to 4.5% on the same loan value would crank up the monthly variable-rate mortgage payment by almost 40%, making the current episode an even more abrupt shift than the late-1980s  after adjusting for income levels.”

Kavcic continues, “the vast majority of borrowers currently on variable-rate mortgages have fixed payment features, but even there, things are now getting dicey. For example, moving a variable rate up from 1.5% to 4% with a fixed payment would effectively increase the amortization from 25 years to 45 years. Another 50 basis-point rate hike in September would take that above 60 years—that is, many will reach the point where payments are no longer taking down the principal. Each mortgage will have its unique terms when payments start to move higher, but for those that caught the low in variable rates, we’ll probably be there soon. Of course, HELOC payments used to finance many multiple-property purchases are ratcheting up in real time.”

There is also the risk that the federal financial institutions’ regulator, OSFI, will intervene to protect the big Chartered Banks from taking on too much risk rather than making it easier for borrowers to qualify or to carry variable-rate loans in this environment.

Moreover, mortgage renewals pose a problem as well. Fixed mortgage rates five years ago were roughly 3%. Resetting the mortgage at 4.5% will lead to a monthly payment increase of approximately 15%, all else equal.

With the latest move by the Bank of Canada, more potential buyers will believe that home prices are likely to fall, taking the FOMO factor out of the housing market. This removes the critical ingredient that drove prices up rapidly since the pandemic began.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
13 Jul

Bank of Canada Shocks With 100 bps Rate Hike

General

Posted by: Tony Passalacqua

A Super-Sized Rate Hike, Signalling More To Come 
The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight policy rate by a full percentage point to 2-1/2%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening (QT), reducing its holdings of Government of Canada bonds, which puts additional upward pressure on longer-term interest rates.

In its press release this morning, the Bank said that “inflation in Canada is higher and more persistent than the Bank expected in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), and will likely remain around 8% in the next few months… While global factors such as the war in Ukraine and ongoing supply disruptions have been the biggest drivers, domestic price pressures from excess demand are becoming more prominent. More than half of the components that make up the CPI are now rising by more than 5%.”

The Bank is particularly concerned that inflation pressures will become entrenched. Consumer and business surveys have recently suggested that inflation expectations are rising and are expected to be higher for longer. Wage inflation has accelerated to 5.2% in the June Labour Force Survey. The unemployment rate has fallen to a record-low 4.9%, with job vacancy rates hitting a record high in Ontario and Alberta.

Central banks worldwide are aggressively hiking interest rates, and growth is slowing. “In the United States, high inflation and rising interest rates contribute to a slowdown in domestic demand. China’s economy is being held back by waves of restrictive measures to contain COVID-19 outbreaks. Oil prices remain high and volatile. The Bank expects global economic growth to slow to about 3½% this year and 2% in 2023 before strengthening to 3% in 2024.”

Further excess demand is evident in the Canadian economy. “With strong demand, businesses are passing on higher input and labour costs by raising prices. Consumption is robust, led by a rebound in spending on hard-to-distance services. Business investment is solid, and exports are being boosted by elevated commodity prices. The Bank estimates that GDP grew by about 4% in the second quarter. Growth is expected to slow to about 2% in the third quarter as consumption growth moderates and housing market activity pulls back following unsustainable strength during the pandemic.”

In the July Monetary Policy Report, released today, the Bank published its forecasts for Canada’s economy to grow by 3.5% in 2022–in line with consensus expectations–1.75% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024. Some economists are already forecasting weaker growth next year, in line with a moderate recession. The Bank has not gone that far yet.

According to the Bank of Canada, “economic activity will slow as global growth moderates, and tighter monetary policy works its way through the economy. This, combined with the resolution of supply disruptions, will bring demand and supply back into balance and alleviate inflationary pressures. Global energy prices are also projected to decline. The July outlook has inflation starting to come back down later this year, easing to about 3% by the end of next year and returning to the 2% target by the end of 2024.”

Bottom Line

Today’s Bank of Canada reports confirmed that the Governing Council continues to judge that interest rates will need to rise further, and “the pace of increases will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and inflation.” Once again, the Bank asserted it is “resolute in its commitment to price stability and will continue to take action as required to achieve the 2% inflation target.”

At 2.5%, the policy rate is at the midpoint of its ‘neutral’ range. This is the level at which monetary policy is deemed to be neither expansionary nor restrictive. Governor Macklem said he expects the Bank to hike the target to 3% or slightly higher. Before today’s actions, markets had expected the year end overnight rate at 3.5%.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
15 Jun

Canadian Home Sales Slow Again in May, Shifting To A Buyers Market in GTA

General

Posted by: Tony Passalacqua

Housing Market Correction Gains Steam in May
Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the slowdown that began in March in response to higher interest rates has broadened. In April, national home sales dropped by 12.6% monthly (m/m). National home sales fell by 8.6% between April and May, building on April’s decline, leaving monthly activity at pre-COVID levels recorded in the second half of 2019. (see chart below).

Sales were down in three-quarters of all local markets, led by many larger census metropolitan areas (CMAs), including those in the Lower Mainland, Calgary, Edmonton, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Ottawa. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in May 2022 came in 21.7% below the record for that month set last year. At a little over 50,000 units sold, the May 2022 sales figure was very close to the 10-year average for that month.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes climbed 4.5% month-over-month in May. The monthly increase was influenced by a jump in new supply in Montreal, while new listings in the GTA posted a modest decline.

With sales down and new listings up in May, the sales-to-new listings ratio eased back to 57.5% — its lowest level since April 2019. It was also not far off the long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio of 55.1%.

Almost three-quarters of local markets were balanced based on the sales-to-new listings ratio being between one standard deviation above or below the long-term average in May 2022 – the most significant number since the fall of 2019. A little less than one quarter was in seller’s market territory, while a small handful was in buyer’s market territory.

There were 2.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of May 2022, still historically low but up by a month from the tightest conditions ever recorded just six months ago. The long-term average for this measure is a little over five months.

Home Prices

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was still up by 23.8% on a year-over-year basis in April, although this was a marked slowdown from the near-30% record increase logged just two months earlier.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 0.8% m/m in May 2022, following a 1.1% decline in April.

Regionally, most of the monthly declines were in markets in Ontario. While most Ontario markets saw prices dip in May, prices rose in cottage country.

Prices rose in Vancouver Island but were flat in Greater Vancouver. Prices fell modestly in the Fraser Valley and posted a larger decline in Chilliwack. Prices were more or less unchanged across the Prairies save for small gains in Saskatoon and Winnipeg.

Meanwhile, Quebec, New Brunswick and PEI continued to outperform, while prices in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador edged up slightly.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was still up by 19.8% y/y in May. However, this posted a marked slowdown from the near-30% record increases logged in January and February.

Bottom Line

The three-month slide in Canadian home sales has now returned sales to pre-COVID levels after running roughly 3)% above that level for the  18 months through February. The most significant slowdown has occurred in Ontario, especially outside the core Toronto region. New listings have risen, but inventories remain low. The sales-to-new listings ratio has fallen sharply to 57.5%, its lowest level since early 2019. Prices have fallen moderately, taking the year-over-year gain down to 19.8% from 23.6% y/y in April. The average home price is now up just 3.4% y/y, which is down 11% from the February peak.

Toronto is cooling, but the suburbs are cooling even faster, while the exurbs (think London, Woodstock, Barrie) are seeing the sharpest shifts. The sales-to-new listings ratio for all of Ontario sunk below 50%, a level we’ve only seen during the 2009 recession and the dark days of the early 1990s. Elsewhere, Alberta remains relatively tight, albeit with stalling prices, while Vancouver, Ottawa and Montreal are mixed between the extremes.

Interest rates have risen sharply from their COVID-induced lows. Mortgage rates have risen sharply from lows of about 1.5% to nearly 5% for 5-year fixed rates. Variable mortgage rates are on their way to 4%-to-4.5% by yearend. By late summer, any still-favourable rate holds will be gone, and this new interest-rate reality will fully sink in. Stress tests at the contract rate plus 200 bps are now nearing 7%; they’ll also be pushing above 5.25% in the variable space.

Many potential Canadian homebuyers now expect home prices to continue to fall in some regions. This shift in psychology will also contribute to the housing correction. In a separate report, CMHC reported that housing starts increased sharply in May. Homebuilding is at its most robust pace on record, going back to the 1950s. Given the record-low unemployment rate, home construction is constrained by record-high job vacancies in the sector, shortages of materials, and rising wage rates. Construction costs have risen sharply in the past year. With higher mortgage rates in the future, the deceleration in sales could lead to slower housing starts next year.

Finally, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 bps today, intensifying the inflation fight. This opens the door for a 75 bps hike by the Bank of Canada when it meets again on July 13. It is now widely expected that the US policy rate, the overnight fed funds rate will exceed 4% by yearend. Canada’s central bank had already announced its intention to hike the overnight rate here more forcefully and has suggested that it will take an overnight rate above 3% to break the back of inflation. The overnight rate now is only 1.5%. A further correction in housing is likely in the coming months. As the economy’s most interest-sensitive sector, housing is the key transmission mechanism for tighter monetary policy to slow the economy and bring inflation under control.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
14 Jun

CHIP Reverse Mortgage

General

Posted by: Tony Passalacqua

Wouldn’t it be nice if you had the money to do more of the things you want to do? A CHIP Reverse Mortgage could be just what you need. It’s the simple and sensible way to unlock the value in your home and turn it into cash to help you enjoy life on your terms.

 

BENEFITS OF A CHIP REVERSE MORTGAGE

You receive the money tax-free. It is not added to your taxable income so it doesn’t affect Old Age Security (OAS) or Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) government benefits you may receive.

You can use the money any way you wish. Maybe you want to enjoy your retirement or cover unexpected expenses. Perhaps you want to update your home or help your family without depleting your current savings. The only condition is that any outstanding loans (e.g. existing mortgage or home equity line of credit) secured by your home must be paid out with the proceeds from your CHIP Reverse Mortgage.

No regular mortgage payments are required while you or your spouse live in your home. The full amount only becomes due when you and your spouse no longer live in the homeYou maintain ownership and control of your home. You will never be asked to move or sell to repay your CHIP Reverse Mortgage. All that’s required is that you maintain your property and stay up-to-date with property taxes, fire insurance and condominium or maintenance fees while you live there.

You keep all the equity remaining in your home. In many years of experience, 99 out of 100 homeowners have money left over when their CHIP Reverse Mortgage is repaid. And on average, the amount left over is 50% of the value of the home when it is sold.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Got questions? Here are frequently asked questions.

How does a CHIP Reverse Mortgage work?

A CHIP Reverse Mortgage is secured by the equity in your home. Unlike a traditional mortgage in which you make regular payments to someone else, a reverse mortgage pays you.

The big advantage with the CHIP Reverse Mortgage is that you do not have to make any regular mortgage payments for as long as you or your spouse lives in your home. That’s what has made reverse mortgages such a popular solution in Canada, the U.K., the U.S., Australia and other countries.

Who is it for?

The CHIP Reverse Mortgage is designed exclusively for homeowners age 55 and older. This age qualification applies to both you and your spouse.

How much can I get and how is it calculated?

You can receive up to 55% of the value of your home. The specific amount is based on your age and that of your spouse, the location and type of home you have, and your home’s current appraised value. You can contact me and I can quickly give you an estimate of how much you may be approved for.

How do I receive the money?

You can choose how you want to receive the money. The CHIP Reverse Mortgage gives you the option of receiving all the money you’re eligible for in one lump sum advance, or you can take some now and more later, or you can receive planned advances over a set period of time. Planned advances are available on the Income Advantage product.

Will the homeowner owe more than the house is worth?

The homeowner keeps all the equity remaining in the home. In our many years of experience, over 99% of homeowners have money left over when their loan is repaid. The equity remaining depends on the amount borrowed, the value of the home, and the amount of time that’s passed since the reverse mortgage was taken out.

Will the bank own the home?

No. The homeowner retains title and maintains ownership of the home. It’s required for the homeowner to live in the home, pay taxes on time, have property insurance, and maintain the property in good condition.

What if the homeowner has an existing mortgage?

Many of our clients use a reverse mortgage to pay off their existing mortgage and debts.

Should reverse mortgages only be considered as a loan of last resort?

No. Many financial professionals recommend a reverse mortgage to supplement monthly income instead of selling and downsizing, or taking out a conventional mortgage or a line of credit.

What fees are associated with a reverse mortgage?

There are one time fees to arrange a reverse mortgage such as an appraisal fee, fee for independent legal advice as well as our fee for administration, title insurance, and registration. With the exception of the appraisal fee, these fees are paid for with the funding dollars.

What if the homeowner can’t afford payments?

There are no monthly payments required as long as the homeowner is living in the home.

Contact me today if you have any questions or if you’d like to see how much you can get!

Tony Passalacqua

Cell: 778 895 4122

email: tpassalacqua@dominionlending.ca